Still striking, in smaller pieces

An exploration wellbore, also called a wildcat wellbore, is the first well drilled on a new idea: a structure nobody has tested. Sodir, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, records every one: where it was drilled, how long it took, and what it found. 1,341 exploration wellbores have been completed on the Norwegian shelf since 1966. Put the years side by side and two measures tell most of the story: how often an exploration wellbore finds oil or gas, and how much each new discovery holds.

1990–1999

In the 1990s four in ten exploration wellbores struck, and each find was large

Each point is a year, averaged with its neighbours. Across: the share of exploration wellbores that found oil or gas. Up: the volume found per new discovery, on a log scale. In the 1990s 42% of exploration wellbores struck, and each new discovery held 15 million Sm³ o.e. on average.

2000–2015

The success rate rose in the 2000s, and Johan Sverdrup arrived in 2010

The 2000s pushed the success rate up to 56%, while each discovery shrank to 5 million Sm³ o.e.. Then 2010 stands out: Johan Sverdrup lifted the volume per discovery that year to 34 million Sm³ o.e.. A drilling boom followed, with up to 47 exploration wellbores completed in a year.

2016–2025

The success rate has held at about half for twenty years

In the last decade 306 exploration wellbores were completed and 51% of them found oil or gas: 153 new discoveries. Sodir calls that high by international standards, and it has held for twenty years.

Exploration wellbores find oil or gas about as often as ever; each find holds far less

Technical success rate against volume per new discovery, three-year averages, 1990–2025

Source: Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no), 2026-11-07
Units: share of exploration wellbores; million Sm³ o.e. per discovery
Confidence: Derived
Note: Success from Sodir's wellbore results (oil or gas proven; shows count as dry). Volumes are Sodir's gross resource growth for each year divided by new discoveries that year.
Export: High-resolution image
Exception: log-scale: Volume per discovery spans more than an order of magnitude; a log axis keeps the last decade readable. Gridlines are labelled with real values.

How the success rate holds up

Where they drill

Almost all recent exploration wellbores sit among producing fields

The exploration wellbores of the last decade, in green where they found oil or gas. Almost all sit among the fields that already produce.

Near-field

Most recent exploration wellbores were within reach of an approved field

81% of those exploration wellbores were drilled within 25 km of a field already approved for development, up from 63% in the 1990s. A find there can be tied back to a platform that is already paid for.

Licences

Most were drilled in licences from the APA rounds

62% were in licences from the APA rounds, the annual awards in mature areas around existing infrastructure.

Speed

Exploration wellbores now take less time to drill

Wells are faster too. The median exploration wellbore since 2016 took 32 days to drill, against 50 in the ten years before.

Most of the last decade's exploration wellbores were drilled next to existing fields

Exploration wellbores completed 2016–2025, with field outlines

Source: Sodir FactPages and FactMaps; base map Relief (Copernicus DEM GLO-90, EMODnet Bathymetry), 2026-11-09
Confidence: Observed
Note: Distance is to the nearest field whose development plan was approved before the well was spudded.
Exception: north-up: Map rotated so the shelf runs up the panel; a north arrow marks the turn.

The median exploration wellbore now takes about a month to drill

Median drilling days per exploration wellbore, by completion year

Source: Sodir FactPages and FactMaps, 2026-11-07
Units: days
Confidence: Observed

What lies under the steady success rate

Size

The average discovery holds much less than in the 1990s

The same path, with the last decade picked out. It has moved right and down: as many hits, much less oil and gas in each. Since 2016 a new discovery has held 3 million Sm³ o.e. on average, 82% less than in the 1990s. Per exploration wellbore drilled, that is 1 million Sm³ o.e. against 6 million Sm³ o.e..

Outcome

Most discoveries of the 2010s are producing, approved or still open

Of the discoveries made in the 2010s, 40% are producing or approved, 20% are still being evaluated and 40% are unlikely ever to produce. For discoveries since 2020, 23% are producing or approved so far and 52% are still under evaluation.

Time

Development takes longer, except next to a platform

Developed discoveries also take longer to come on stream. 25% of discoveries made from 2010 onwards were producing within ten years, against 43% of those from the 2000s. The exception is new: 14 exploration wellbores since 2020 were drilled from an existing platform, and several produced almost at once.

Since 2016 each new discovery has held 82% less than in the 1990s

Technical success rate against volume per new discovery, three-year averages

Source: Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no), 2026-11-07
Units: share of exploration wellbores; million Sm³ o.e. per discovery
Confidence: Derived
Note: As above. Recent volumes are early estimates and tend to change as discoveries are appraised.
Exception: log-scale: As in the first view of this figure.

Commercial success has fallen even as technical success held

What became of every exploration wellbore, by five-year period of completion, per cent

Source: Sodir FactPages and FactMaps, 2026-11-07
Units: per cent of exploration wellbores
Confidence: Derived
Note: Commercial = the discovery is producing, has produced or is approved for production, directly or through the field it joined. Recent periods are incomplete by nature.

Most discoveries take years to produce; exploration wellbores drilled from platforms produce at once

Years from discovery to first production, for every discovery developed so far, by discovery year

Source: Sodir FactPages and FactMaps, 2026-11-07
Units: years
Confidence: Derived
Note: First production is the producing field's start, or the date the discovery was included in it if later. Discoveries that have not produced yet are not shown, so recent years show only the fast ones.
Exception: sqrt-scale: Square-root axis spreads the many short lead times while keeping the 30-year ones in view.

Where the North Sea still pays

The national averages hide a map. Cut every North Sea block into four equal quarters, ten minutes of longitude by seven and a half of latitude, and each of the 1,136 quarters has its own record: how many exploration wellbores, how often they struck, how much they found. Across 883 North Sea exploration wellbores, one glyph per quarter and era: a ring for every exploration wellbore drilled, and at the centre a disc whose area is the volume discovered. Colour says how the quarter did: clay below the North Sea's long-run success rate of 45%, grey around it, blue above; pale for small finds, deep for large ones.

1966–1985

In the first twenty years few exploration wellbores struck, and the prizes were large

The first twenty years were a lottery with huge prizes. Only 37% of exploration wellbores struck, so clay rings dominate, but 16 quarters held finds of more than 50 million Sm³ o.e. each: Troll, Statfjord, Ekofisk, Oseberg. Together that era found 6,715 million Sm³ o.e..

1986–2005

From 1986 the success rate climbed and the wells moved in around existing fields

The success rate climbed and the glyphs gathered around the fields already found: Tampen, Oseberg, Sleipner. Most discs turn pale. Only 3 quarters held a large find, and the era found 1,156 million Sm³ o.e..

2006–2015

Johan Sverdrup is the one large find of 2006–2015

More of the same, with one exception that stands out on the whole map: the large blue disc on the Utsira High is Johan Sverdrup.

2016–2025

The last decade brought more accurate drilling and smaller finds

The success rate has risen to 49% and blue rings are now common: 40 of the 110 quarters drilled beat the average, and 17 were drilled three times or more. But every disc is pale. The best quarter of the decade found 18 million Sm³ o.e.; the whole North Sea found 153 million Sm³ o.e..

Licences today

The last decade's exploration wellbores sit inside today's licences

With the 337 present-day licences drawn in, the pattern is plain: the last decade's exploration wellbores sit almost entirely inside acreage that is already licensed around producing fields.

Big finds belong to the North Sea's first decades; the last ten years drilled more accurately and found little

Exploration wellbores by quarter-block and era; rings = wells, disc = volume found, colour = success and size

Source: Sodir FactPages and FactMaps; base map Relief (Copernicus DEM GLO-90, EMODnet Bathymetry), 2026-11-09
Units: wells; million Sm³ o.e.
Confidence: Derived
Note: Success is shrunk towards the North Sea average (three-well prior) so one well does not make an outlier. Volume is attributed to the well that made each discovery (field volumes to the founding discovery); discoveries rated production unlikely have no published volume and count as zero.
Export: High-resolution image
Exception: direct-labels: Hundreds of glyphs: a bivariate legend, ring key and hover replace labels. Colour is bivariate (3 x 3, corners labelled); rings and disc area carry count and volume as well.

What the next decade looks like

The pattern is consistent. Norway keeps its success rate by drilling where the rocks are known and the pipes already exist. That brings smaller finds, quicker wells and, where a platform is close, quicker development: the 14 exploration wellbores drilled from an existing platform since 2020 show the best case, with several in production almost at once. Small finds are worth developing mainly when a platform is close and has spare capacity, and that capacity shrinks as fields age and shut down.

The coming decade will likely look the same: about half of exploration wellbores finding something, most of it small, and the best of it produced quickly through existing platforms while they last. 52% of the discoveries since 2020 are still under evaluation, so how many of them reach production is not yet settled. A large new find, as Johan Sverdrup was in 2010, remains possible but cannot be planned for. Interpreted.

Appendix

Basis of analysis

Sources

Sodir FactPages and FactMaps, https://factpages.sodir.no, accessed 2026-11-07. Exploration wellbores, discoveries, fields, field status and production; field outlines, land and maritime boundaries. NLOD 2.0.
Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no), https://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/exploration/exploration-activity/, accessed 2026-11-07. Volume discovered each year, million Sm³ o.e.; 2025 is preliminary
Sodir FactPages and FactMaps; base map Relief (Copernicus DEM GLO-90, EMODnet Bathymetry), https://github.com/AdmcCarthy/Relief, accessed 2026-11-09. Wells, fields and licences from Sodir (NLOD 2.0). Land heights Copernicus DEM GLO-90 © DLR e.V. 2010-2014 and © Airbus 2014-2018, provided under COPERNICUS by the European Union and ESA; sea-floor depths EMODnet Bathymetry Consortium (2024), generalised by Relief to a 4 km cell (shelf map) and a 2 km cell (North Sea map).

Conventions

Confidence. Observed measured or published by the source; Derived our calculation from observed data, method stated; Interpreted depends on a model, assumption or judgement.
Units. Volumes in Sm³ oil equivalent, with boe via the toggle (1 Sm³ o.e. = 6.29 boe). P90 means a 90% chance of exceeding: the low case.
Narrative arc. reveal (claim → evidence → twist).

Numbers in this story

Every number quoted in the text, with its exact value, method, source and confidence
Number	Exact value	Shown as	Method	Confidence
`vol_disc_fall`	0.821033	82%	Fall in volume per discovery, 1990s to 2016–2025 (Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no))	Derived
`n_wildcats`	1,341	1,341	Exploration wellbores completed 1966–2025 (not re-entries or CCS) (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Observed
`tech_1990s`	0.424893	42%	Technical success 1990–1999 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`vol_disc_1990s`	1.50817e+07 Sm³ o.e.	15 million	Volume discovered per new discovery, 1990–1999 (Sodir gross resource growth / discoveries) (Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no))	Derived
`tech_2000s`	0.5625	56%	Technical success 2000–2009 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`vol_disc_2000s`	5.23849e+06 Sm³ o.e.	5 million	Volume per new discovery, 2000–2009 (Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no))	Derived
`vol_2010_disc`	33,845,200 Sm³ o.e.	34 million	Volume per new discovery in 2010, the year Johan Sverdrup was found (Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no))	Derived
`peak_wildcats`	47	47	Most exploration wellbores completed in one year since 1990 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Observed
`n_last`	306	306	Exploration wellbores completed 2016–2025 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Observed
`tech_last`	0.509804	51%	Technical success 2016–2025: wells proving oil or gas over all exploration wellbores (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`disc_last`	153	153	New discoveries from exploration wellbores completed 2016–2025 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Observed
`near_last`	0.810458	81%	Share of 2016–2025 exploration wellbores within 25 km of a field approved before spud (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`25 (parameter)`	25	25	Threshold or definition chosen for this story	Parameter
`near_1990s`	0.630901	63%	Share of 1990s exploration wellbores within 25 km of a field (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`apa_last`	0.624183	62%	Share of 2016–2025 exploration wellbores in licences from the APA rounds (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Observed
`days_last`	32	32	Median drilling days, exploration wellbores 2016–2025 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Observed
`days_2006_15`	50	50	Median drilling days, exploration wellbores 2006–2015 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Observed
`vol_disc_last`	2.69913e+06 Sm³ o.e.	3 million	Volume per new discovery, 2016–2025 (Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no))	Derived
`vol_wc_last`	1.34957e+06 Sm³ o.e.	1 million	Volume discovered per exploration wellbore, 2016–2025 (Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no))	Derived
`vol_wc_1990s`	6.40812e+06 Sm³ o.e.	6 million	Volume discovered per exploration wellbore, 1990–1999 (Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no))	Derived
`dev_2010s`	0.402597	40%	2010s discoveries producing, produced or approved for production (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`eval_2010s`	0.201299	20%	2010s discoveries still being evaluated (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`unlikely_2010s`	0.396104	40%	2010s discoveries where production is unlikely (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`dev_2020s`	0.231579	23%	2020–2025 discoveries producing or approved (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`eval_2020s`	0.515789	52%	2020–2025 discoveries still being evaluated (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`p10_2010s`	0.247787	25%	Share of 2010–2015 discoveries producing within ten years (later years too recent) (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`p10_2000s`	0.426076	43%	Share of 2000s discoveries producing within ten years (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`platform_2020s`	14	14	Exploration wellbores drilled from an existing installation since 2020 (slot-coded wellbore names) (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`ns_quarters`	1,136	1,136	Quarter-blocks in the North Sea (Sodir blocks cut into four) (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`ns_wells`	883	883	North Sea exploration wellbores completed 1966–2025 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Observed
`ns_avg`	0.4473	45%	North Sea technical success rate 1966–2025, the centre of the diverging scale (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`ns_rate_0`	0.368	37%	North Sea technical success 1966–1985 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`ns_large_0`	16	16	Quarter-blocks with large finds (50 million Sm³ o.e. or more per discovery), 1966–1985 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`50 (parameter)`	50	50	Threshold or definition chosen for this story	Parameter
`ns_vol_0`	6,714,500,000 Sm³ o.e.	6,715 million	Volume attributed to North Sea discoveries 1966–1985 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`ns_large_1`	3	3	Quarter-blocks with large finds, 1986–2005 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`ns_vol_1`	1,156,100,000 Sm³ o.e.	1,156 million	Volume attributed to North Sea discoveries 1986–2005 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`ns_rate_3`	0.4946	49%	North Sea technical success 2016–2025 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`ns_above_3`	40	40	Quarter-blocks above the average (adjusted), 2016–2025 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`ns_cells_3`	110	110	Quarter-blocks with an exploration wellbore 2016–2025 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Observed
`ns_multi_3`	17	17	Quarter-blocks with three or more exploration wellbores, 2016–2025 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Observed
`ns_top_last`	18,160,000 Sm³ o.e.	18 million	Largest volume found in one quarter-block 2016–2025 (25/1 NE) (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`ns_vol_3`	153,400,000 Sm³ o.e.	153 million	Volume attributed to North Sea discoveries 2016–2025 (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Derived
`ns_licences`	337	337	Present-day production licences touching the North Sea frame (Sodir FactPages and FactMaps)	Observed
`6.29 (parameter)`	6.29	6.3	Threshold or definition chosen for this story	Parameter

Figures

Every figure with its source, confidence and any declared exception
Figure	Form	Source	Confidence	Notes and exceptions
Exploration wellbores find oil or gas about as often as ever; each find holds far less	custom	Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no)	Derived	Success from Sodir's wellbore results (oil or gas proven; shows count as dry). Volumes are Sodir's gross resource growth for each year divided by new discoveries that year. Exception (log-scale): Volume per discovery spans more than an order of magnitude; a log axis keeps the last decade readable. Gridlines are labelled with real values.
Most of the last decade's exploration wellbores were drilled next to existing fields	custom	Sodir FactPages and FactMaps; base map Relief (Copernicus DEM GLO-90, EMODnet Bathymetry)	Observed	Distance is to the nearest field whose development plan was approved before the well was spudded. Exception (north-up): Map rotated so the shelf runs up the panel; a north arrow marks the turn.
The median exploration wellbore now takes about a month to drill	line	Sodir FactPages and FactMaps	Observed
Since 2016 each new discovery has held 82% less than in the 1990s	custom	Sodir, gross resource growth and exploration wellbores completed, 1990–2025 (norskpetroleum.no)	Derived	As above. Recent volumes are early estimates and tend to change as discoveries are appraised. Exception (log-scale): As in the first view of this figure.
Commercial success has fallen even as technical success held	stack	Sodir FactPages and FactMaps	Derived	Commercial = the discovery is producing, has produced or is approved for production, directly or through the field it joined. Recent periods are incomplete by nature.
Most discoveries take years to produce; exploration wellbores drilled from platforms produce at once	custom	Sodir FactPages and FactMaps	Derived	First production is the producing field's start, or the date the discovery was included in it if later. Discoveries that have not produced yet are not shown, so recent years show only the fast ones. Exception (sqrt-scale): Square-root axis spreads the many short lead times while keeping the 30-year ones in view.
Big finds belong to the North Sea's first decades; the last ten years drilled more accurately and found little	custom	Sodir FactPages and FactMaps; base map Relief (Copernicus DEM GLO-90, EMODnet Bathymetry)	Derived	Success is shrunk towards the North Sea average (three-well prior) so one well does not make an outlier. Volume is attributed to the well that made each discovery (field volumes to the founding discovery); discoveries rated production unlikely have no published volume and count as zero. Exception (direct-labels): Hundreds of glyphs: a bivariate legend, ring key and hover replace labels. Colour is bivariate (3 x 3, corners labelled); rings and disc area carry count and volume as well.

Definitions

Wildcat: Sodir purpose wildcat, not a re-entry and not a CO₂ storage well. Counted in the year it was completed, as in Sodir's own series; 2026 is partial and only shown, never averaged.
Technical success: the well proved oil or gas. Shows count as dry.
New discovery: Sodir records the well as the discovery wellbore.
Commercial success: the discovery is producing, has produced or is approved for production, directly or through the field or discovery it was later included in.
Near a field: within 25 km of the outline of a field whose development plan was approved before the well was spudded.
APA: Awards in Predefined Areas, Norway's annual licensing in mature areas.
Drilled from a platform: wellbore names with an installation slot code, such as the A in Brage's A-wells.
Volume per discovery: Sodir's gross resource growth for the year divided by that year's new discoveries. These are today's estimates of what was found.

Print files

The two figures with an export page, the connected scatterplot and the North Sea glyph map, are available as vector PDF (A3 and A1) and as PNG in the print files list.

Glossary

Sm³ o.e.: standard cubic metres of oil equivalent; one is 6.3 barrels of oil equivalent.
PDO: plan for development and operation, the sanction step on the Norwegian shelf.
Tie-back: a field produced through another field's platform or vessel.